gasman

Well Known Member
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Snips from Van's website over the past 26 years.
All prices were taken in June of each year.

1997
1997kit$.JPG
2000
2000kit$.JPG
2005
2005kit$.JPG
2010
2010kit$.JPG
2015
2015kit$.JPG
2020
2020 kit $.JPG
2023
2023 kit prices.JPG
chart inflation.JPG
 
I suspect that current builders are also paying shipping costs that are nearing the costs of kits produced a decade or so ago.
 
And a gallon of gas was around a buck fifty in 97.
 

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I remember visiting Vans with my wife and getting the tour when they were still in North Plains. Ken Scott gave the tour. When my wife asked how much the airplane kit was going to cost, Ken said about $12k.
“That’s not so bad”, and I bought the tail kit and remember the $1200 price.

Ken neglected? to tell her it would need an engine and instruments, and …..
I didn’t correct him.

That was 1998 or so. My RV6 cost to build - 8 years, $80k, and one wife.
Everything would be a lot more expensive today, and thankfully wife two is working out great.
 
That was 1998 or so. My RV6 cost to build - 8 years, $80k, and one wife.
Everything would be a lot more expensive today, and thankfully wife two is working out great.

Thus the Gordon Baxter quote in my signature.
 
I currently own 2 businesses. A Secure Destruction/Recycling business, and a High Performance Driving School.

The destruction business is very equipment and labor intensive, with about 40 employees, specialized processing equipment, 45k sf warehouse, and a dozen heavy trucks. The Driving School is just me, renting out a racing facility and bringing in subcontracted instructors.

I'm very on top of my costs, constantly checking and adjusting my cost per widget produced to my fixed expenses.

Since 2020, I have raised my prices 45% on the destruction side, and 50% on the school side. My margins have not changed.

Vans was remiss in not keeping on top of costs, and were unlucky with the COVID induced interruption to QC. While we will now all suffer, if you compare their increases to eggs, milk, gas, scrap prices, labor costs, etc over the last 4 years, they are not out of line. Just late to the game.
 
Van's should publish the price of an RV6A kit shipped in 1997, based on todays prices, so everyone could see the cost of pre-punched self jigging no layout no plans reading snap together and one stop shopping. Plus a big discount on motors and props.

All of those labor saving improvements to the builder had to be paid by someone..... and now we know who was paying for them as inflation snuck in.
 
Updated prices in today dollars: I took those images with kit prices and plotted them for original and today's prices and did a % change comparison. Its really interesting.

Screenshot 2023-12-12 at 11.51.35 AM.jpg

Screenshot 2023-12-12 at 11.52.47 AM.jpg

From 2010-2020 prices increases slowed down on average for the -7 kits (both QB and SB).
After 2005 Empennage kits for the -6 were no longer sold, so I used the -4 Emp kits as an estimate.

I'm not surprised that the price jump we're seeing now for kits probably corresponds to getting closer to inflation rates over the last ~25 years (if you average the % change its ~4.2% for kits and ~5% for QBs on the RV-7)

Looking at the inflation rate over the same period:
Screenshot 2023-12-12 at 1.10.05 PM.png
Average rate over this period is ~2.44% per year
(source: https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet)
 
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Probably looks even better when you factor in the years from jig building an RV4, to match hole RV6/7, to pre-punched.
 
Updated prices in today dollars: I took those images with kit prices and plotted them for original and today's prices and did a % change comparison. Its really interesting.

View attachment 52447

View attachment 52448

From 2010-2020 prices increases slowed down on average for the -7 kits (both QB and SB).
After 2005 Empennage kits for the -6 were no longer sold, so I used the -4 Emp kits as an estimate.

I'm not surprised that the price jump we're seeing now for kits probably corresponds to getting closer to inflation rates over the last ~25 years (if you average the % change its ~4.2% for kits and ~5% for QBs on the RV-7)

Looking at the inflation rate over the same period:
View attachment 52449
Average rate over this period is ~2.44% per year
(source: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/inflation-rate-cpi)

Your last chart is misleading. The time period says 1979 to 2024, but the DATA only goes to 2022 (not 2023).

From BLS

latest_numbers_CUUR0000SA0L1E_1997_2023_all_period_M11_pct_12mths.gif


It's *really* easy to start getting nonsensical results when using this sort of data...year-to-year rates by month, monthly rates averaged over a year, etc. Then trying to match that data to prices that are changed at various points in time throughout any year, etc.

Just sayin'.
 
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Your last chart is misleading. The time period says 19979 to 2024, but the DATA only goes to 2022 (not 2023).

From BLS

latest_numbers_CUUR0000SA0L1E_1997_2023_all_period_M11_pct_12mths.gif


It's *really* easy to start getting nonsensical results when using this sort of data...year-to-year rates by month, monthly rates averaged over a year, etc. Then trying to match that data to prices that are changed at various points in time throughout any year, etc.

Just sayin'.

yeah i noticed that when I downloaded the raw data, I will update my previous post with that asterisk.
 
yeah i noticed that when I downloaded the raw data, I will update my previous post with that asterisk.

It's gone now, but when I was messing with the kit order form that just came out, an RV-7A SB came out at around 51K. Maybe add that to your chart, just for s**ts and grins?
 
Probably looks even better when you factor in the years from jig building an RV4, to match hole RV6/7, to pre-punched.

I don’t know. It sure seems like folks are taking just as long to finish an RV as they used too. Perhaps the builds today are just a bit more complicated, or sophisticated, in certain areas, and not in others?
Maybe some multiple time builders that have spanned those years and have built different vintages can interject.
 
I don't think extrapolation of inflation shows what it costs to produce.

1945 the unit cost of a P-51 $50,985
In todays dollars that works out to about 880,000

There's no way (even removing insurance costs) any manufacture could build a P-51 for that amount of money today.

There are more factors at play than just inflation. the price structure and costs are more dynamic than just adjusting for inflation.

in 1943 a Piper L-4 was $2,437
In todays dollars that works out to about $43,000

https://www.warbirdsandairshows.com/Aircraft manufacturing/aircraftcostswwii.htm
 
How they calculate CPI is kind of weird and does not reflect GA or even most manufacturing. Here is some examples I plotted a few years ago. This is the price of a Cessna 172 from the 1950s to today.
53394255446_d648ed6245_z.jpg

granted that GA is not normal so I also plotted the average cost of a Ford Mustang vs CPI from 1964 to today.
53394566574_5ae03f5666_z.jpg

Then I normalized the data and plotted them against each other.
53394566579_15d7e8ba11_z.jpg


They actually stay fairly close until the 1980s then it diverges a lot. That is when they had all the lawsuits against the aircraft manufacturers and also a bunch of certification changes. Either way both items outstrip what the CPI rate says they should be.

To put it another way

In 1970 a Cessna 172 was 1.3 times the average salary in the U.S. and a Bonanza was 5 times the average. Today it is 6 times the average salary for 172 and 14 times the average salary for a Bonanza.
 
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And a gallon of gas was around a buck fifty in 97.

Shoot, I can remember, in 1972, a gallon of airplane gas was .50 cents. AND--We thought "that" was expensive. I remember, because I had a T-6 back then. And I can also remember, before 1973, a gallon of car gas was .33 cents.

( The whole T-6 airplane was $8500. Wonder what they cost today.
 
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1997-1998

Made first flight in my RV-6 in September 1997. I typically could fly all day (3 to 4 hours on the hobbs) on a tank of AvGas and fill up for $35.

In 2023, that fill up averages $135.

In the late '80s, early '90s, I budgeted $75 per week to build my RV-6 and projected an expense/budget of $35K. When I was finished 8.5 years later, I had $50K invested. IF you add 4% inflation per year, I was very close to being on budget. A new Lycoming 160 HP engine from Van's was $12K. I purchased a wrecked Piper for $2,600 and rebuilt the engine to new specs and had $12K in it when it was ready to go in the RV-6. I paid cash for the engine and parts used as I had the money. Had I gotten the new engine, that would have incurred a finance charge.

I need to see if I still have the paper order form. I think when I started, the complete four RV-6 kits where less than $10K.
 
Well, heck-fire and tarnation, back in the REALLY good old days, gas was CHEAPER. Shoot, in 1931 it was only EIGHTEEN CENTS a gallon!!!! You young whippersnappers sure do pay a lot for gas just to fly around in your flivvers!

What's that ya say, boy? Something about the "inflation-adjusted price" of that 18 cents being...what's that? $3.64?

Why, that just can't be....it was CHEAPER BACK THEN, I tell ya! Things was ALWAYS CHEAPER in the olden days!
 
airfix

Well! When I was a boy an airplane kit cost twenty six cents and I built all of them, could do it in a week back then (takes much longer now).
 
Made first flight in my RV-6 in September 1997. I typically could fly all day (3 to 4 hours on the hobbs) on a tank of AvGas and fill up for $35.

In 2023, that fill up averages $135.

In the late '80s, early '90s, I budgeted $75 per week to build my RV-6 and projected an expense/budget of $35K. When I was finished 8.5 years later, I had $50K invested. IF you add 4% inflation per year, I was very close to being on budget. A new Lycoming 160 HP engine from Van's was $12K. I purchased a wrecked Piper for $2,600 and rebuilt the engine to new specs and had $12K in it when it was ready to go in the RV-6. I paid cash for the engine and parts used as I had the money. Had I gotten the new engine, that would have incurred a finance charge.

I need to see if I still have the paper order form. I think when I started, the complete four RV-6 kits where less than $10K.

$75 per week? Gary you spared no expense! ;)

I started my tail while working as "the summer intern" between my last couple semesters of school. By the end of summer I had set aside enough for just a rudder! I went up and counted the rivets by hand to make sure I wasn't buying anything I didn't need right away. That kept me busy in the school machine shop after TA'ing in the evenings.

I kept a pretty frugal approach throughout, changing projects from a piecemealed RV-6 to a piecemealed RV-4 when someone had some "really big pieces" for sale. With the help of some awesome people, that airplane has become my favorite way to get to work just this year.

Even in these crazy times, there's still hope for budget builders. Seems like every month or two a project started last century pops up with a price to match.
 
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It would be interesting to see Van's offer an RV6 kit as was sold in the 90's without any pre punch and only with the manuals and plans for the discounted price for no finish cut or punched parts...... and the need for jigs.

That would greatly reduce the demand. And show the value of the modern kit.

In 1998, I figured 1/3 cost for airframe, 1/3 for motor, and 1/3 for paint, seats and panel. All figured "average". So pick your new (Van's) Lycoming and times it by 3 and you will be in the ballpark.
 
I'm not sure why any of this matters, really. It's of zero consequence what the price of any kit was at some point in the distant (or not-so-distant) past. With the possible exception of the most recent prices to compare, of course.

Van's is going to charge what they will...figuring out how that stacks up against prices from 25 years ago seems hardly worth the effort.
 
Meanwhile the rise in our income hardly matches this trend, unless you part of a group that you are not flying RV but a nice business jet.

This highlights the problem with cherry-picking data points from a dataset.

By January of 1980, gold was (however briefly) trading in the $700-850 range, or well over 2500 in today's dollars. But just imagine if you'd only had the prescience to buy at *precisely* the right time in the past! Wouldn't that have been something?

Anyone can look like an investing genius if they cherry-pick dates in the past to show how great some investment vehicle is.
 
To me, I think the point of comparing the kit prices then vs now is to show that a rise in kit prices now as a result of this organizational change is not an outrageous thing to happen. Part of showing the kit prices in today's dollars at different points, just highlights that they've remained relatively flat, while the quality and build characteristics have improved (pre-punched, final size, plan details, etc.).

If those additional improvements over the years are also taken into account, the kit prices probably should have risen more than they have in the past, leading to a kit price increase as a result of the bankruptcy being lower than it is (i.e. if the kit prices increased over the last 25 years as result of these improvements, the big jump we see now wouldn't be so big).

Looking at historical price trends doesn't need to be anything more than that: understanding the history of Vans kit prices. Plus, charts are fun to make :)
 
Are RV’s more expensive to build than they used to be?

I mentioned before, my RV6 cost $85k in 2005 dollars.
That calculates roughly to $125k today.

Could you build an equivalent RV7 for $125k before Vans price increase? After?

SB Wing
QB Fuse
IO 360 (Aerosport)
Limited glass (496, D10A)
Back-up Steam (plus RC Allen T/B)
AP
SL30
GTX327
Oregon Aero Leather Seats, side panels, rests, boots.
Professional Paint, three color.

The only items purchased from Vans was the airframe kit.
I’ll do my own math later.
 
This highlights the problem with cherry-picking data points from a dataset.

By January of 1980, gold was (however briefly) trading in the $700-850 range, or well over 2500 in today's dollars. But just imagine if you'd only had the prescience to buy at *precisely* the right time in the past! Wouldn't that have been something?

Anyone can look like an investing genius if they cherry-pick dates in the past to show how great some investment vehicle is.
While I agree with you about cherry picking data to make a point, I believe it would hardly be disputed or cherry picking to suggest the income of average folks has not kept up with the rise in prices, hence the shrinking of the middle class.
 
While I agree with you about cherry picking data to make a point, I believe it would hardly be disputed or cherry picking to suggest the income of average folks has not kept up with the rise in prices, hence the shrinking of the middle class.

This is going to get this thread closed down, as well, but...

Are you *sure*? The median income for 1997 was 37K. In 2022 (most recent full year), it was 74.5K. In inflation-adjusted dollars...that 37K in 97 is 67K in 2022 dollars. So the median income growth *exceeded* the rate of inflation over that time period.
 
This is going to get this thread closed down, as well, but...

Are you *sure*? The median income for 1997 was 37K. In 2022 (most recent full year), it was 74.5K. In inflation-adjusted dollars...that 37K in 97 is 67K in 2022 dollars. So the median income growth *exceeded* the rate of inflation over that time period.
It's a bit of a meaningless assessment anyway. To really understand how much more wealthy you have to be now to afford a kit you have to add in the inflation of all the necessities in life. House price, car, food, power, clothes, phone, internet, insurance, etc... Meanwhile you only have one income to offset all that cumulative inflation.
 
It's a bit of a meaningless assessment anyway. To really understand how much more wealthy you have to be now to afford a kit you have to add in the inflation of all the necessities in life. House price, car, food, power, clothes, phone, internet, insurance, etc... Meanwhile you only have one income to offset all that cumulative inflation.

It's meaningless in one sense, yes. But the CPI is precisely what you're talking about...the increase in prices of various commodities and such. That's *how* inflation is measured.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp

I'm only pointing out that the unceasing whining about how awful things are now compared to [pick a date which makes your arithmetic work out to support your woebegone state] is often based on woolly thinking and rather poor use of statistics.
 
I'm only pointing out that the unceasing whining about how awful things are now compared to [pick a date which makes your arithmetic work out to support your woebegone state] is often based on woolly thinking and rather poor use of statistics.

Oops! Flag on the play! Use of logic in an emotional argument! 5 yard penalty and repeat first down!

(wait, is a sports reference going to get the thread shut down? :D:D )
 
This is going to get this thread closed down, as well, but...

Are you *sure*? The median income for 1997 was 37K. In 2022 (most recent full year), it was 74.5K. In inflation-adjusted dollars...that 37K in 97 is 67K in 2022 dollars. So the median income growth *exceeded* the rate of inflation over that time period.

Am I sure? No, I am sure of nothing but death and taxes.
However, we ought to know that middle class and median income are not exactly the same, my post indicates middle class.

According to the US Census Bureau the middle class income in 2021 was $65k.

https://www.investopedia.com/financ...arch Center defines,to the U.S. Census Bureau.
 
According to the US Census Bureau the middle class income in 2021 was $65k.

https://www.investopedia.com/financ...arch Center defines,to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Ah, statistics again. No, that's not what the article said. It said, and I quote,

The median income in the U.S. was $65,000 in 2020 (regardless of household size).
(emphasis added)

Precisely the metric I was using, and not at all the same as the RANGE of incomes that are associated with DIFFERENT household sizes and therein defined as "middle class".

Did you READ the whole article?
 
Ah, statistics again. No, that's not what the article said. It said, and I quote,

(emphasis added)

Precisely the metric I was using, and not at all the same as the RANGE of incomes that are associated with DIFFERENT household sizes and therein defined as "middle class".

Did you READ the whole article?

We probably ought to this over a beer so we can both claim ignorant of what we said and not get mad and also not help close this.

However, I quote
"The Pew Research Center defines the middle class as households that earn between two-thirds and double the median U.S. household income, which was $65,000 in 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau"

BTW, speaking of cherry picking, couldn't help the noticing the section right above where you quoted from.

"KEY TAKEAWAYS
The middle class constitutes 50% of the U.S. population as of 2021, which is quite a bit smaller than it has been in nearly half a century.
Historically, the middle class has been the engine of American economic growth and prosperity.
The share of income captured by the middle class fell from 62% in 1970 to 43% in 2014.
The middle class is shrinking due to an increase in population at the extreme bottom and top of the economic spectrum.
The median income in the U.S. was $65,000 in 2020 (regardless of household size)."
 
I thought this post was about what it cost back then and what it cost now to build an RV. Seems to have taken a different turn.
 
May 1991 RV6 kit prices

From my order sheets:
May 1991 RV6 kit prices
Plans $195
Empennage $740 + $15 crating
Wing $2960 + $55 crating
Fuselage $2435 +$55 crating
Finishing $2750 + $65 crating
 
Budget builder, build on!

For the guys on a shoe string budget, this is how you get in the air with a new construction these days for under $40 or $50k…

I know this isn’t for everyone, takes some patience, and may or may not have some work to correct… but it is untrue to say the frugal flyer doesn’t have a spot in todays RV-world.

https://vansairforce.net/community/showthread.php?t=222807
 
A shoe string would be nice.

For the guys on a shoe string budget, this is how you get in the air with a new construction these days for under $40 or $50k…

I know this isn’t for everyone, takes some patience, and may or may not have some work to correct… but it is untrue to say the frugal flyer doesn’t have a spot in todays RV-world.

https://vansairforce.net/community/showthread.php?t=222807

After a long hiatus building my 8 for various reasons, I decided to restart. The 8 I 'wanted' is long gone, dead and buried, never to be seen again unless I win the lottery.

I'm going to wait until the dust settles, and I'm getting old so running out of time there also. But if I'm lucky, I'll end up with a bare bones VFR 8, using second hand components everywhere I can and a high time lyc (I don't fly a lot anyway now) with a used prop. The reality is, I no longer really have the money, but I'll still try to make it work if I can.

From a working class guy that isn't anywhere near the entry level salary to be middle class.

Roger
 
I think it adds up

I’d like to see your math.

Incase it wasn't obvious, that's with a used engine or self-overhaul.

My RV-4 makes a comparable case though...

-Purchased a third-hand kit that was basically a complete airframe for $11k in 2020.

-Found an overhauled engine still in its crate from 12 years prior, in 2019. Purchased for $10k.

-Did a lot of piecemealing on the FWF, but spend about $2k on oil coolers, baffles, hoses, fuel pump and valves etc.

At that point, I could have gone with an oldschool panel and fixed pitch prop and been in the air for $35k. (Including those final items that are rarely found second hand, such as a 406ELT, ADS-B out solution, fairings etc).

Had I not found the engine I did, I would have used a mid time O-320, or found a run out one and overhauled it. A bit of uncertainty there, but either of those options can be accomplished in the 10-20k range consistently, so I think the model still holds.

Ultimately, I went with a single-screen Dynon panel (which I built and wired myself), and a constant speed prop. The most recent list prices on those would add another $22k total, and yes, cross the $50k mark. However, these aren't necessary items to get a budget-build in the air (and can certainly be found on the used market).

Ok, so maybe the RV-4 kit was too good of a deal to count on finding again...
For another comparison, before switching to the 4, I was building a 6, which I had purchased at a stage very similar to the one I previously linked. Through VAF, craigslist, or word of RV'er mouth, I amassed cowling, fairings, interior, gear legs and mount, wheels and brakes, etc. I ultimately sold the 6 to purchase the 4 project when I came across it. Had I kept the 6, the finished airplane cost would have been about 10K higher than my 4, but the rest of the numbers above would plug right in, again flying for under 50k.

Sorry for the thread drift, I recognize this is not directly related to modern kit prices. I'm just pointing out that there's still plenty of spots out there for guys who want a piece of this awesome hobby along with an authentic RV-grin, and are trying to do so on a budget.

(As long as you don't mind having 4 colors of fiberglass on your airplane from as many decades worth of parts).
 
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+1 for the build your own engine. I have an A&P/AI friend that is going to help me tear an engine down route out the parts and put it back together. He thinks we can do one for under $25K so even if I add in the EFII system32 I should be under $30K. Given that the cheapest O-320 I have been able to find is a Superior engine for $36K and most of the overhaul vendors are asking for $40K I think I will be in good shape. I would check around with your local EAA chapters you might be able to find someone with the appropriate experience to help you. The current prices from the build shops are just ridiculous and unfortunately there seem to be enough builders ready to drop that kind of money to keep the prices that high. If we would all just stop buying them at those prices the prices would drop.
 
For the guys on a shoe string budget, this is how you get in the air with a new construction these days for under $40 or $50k…

I know this isn’t for everyone, takes some patience, and may or may not have some work to correct… but it is untrue to say the frugal flyer doesn’t have a spot in todays RV-world.

https://vansairforce.net/community/showthread.php?t=222807

Sorry, I could not resist.

I just wanted to point out that the ad you pointed out there, while it is an incredibly good deal, does not seem to indicate a Finishing Kit is included. What is that going to cost and when will you receive it? 15K to 19K?

Van's has been saying since November 2017 that RV3, 4 and 6 kits could be eighteen months or more wait.

And these cheap engines people seem to talk about over the years seem to be harder to find.
 
Sorry, I could not resist.

I just wanted to point out that the ad you pointed out there, while it is an incredibly good deal, does not seem to indicate a Finishing Kit is included. What is that going to cost and when will you receive it? 15K to 19K?

Van's has been saying since November 2017 that RV3, 4 and 6 kits could be eighteen months or more wait.

And these cheap engines people seem to talk about over the years seem to be harder to find.

I recognize that a finishing kit is not included. However, as I previously mentioned, (having done it about 1 and a half times now in the last 5 years), piecing a finish kit together with second hand parts is very doable, especially for 6/7/9/4. Probably not going to find a used canopy, but canopy frames, cowls, wheels/brakes, gear and engine mounts pop up for sale all the time as a result of builders changing engine/induction type, canopy type, or landing gear configuration during their builds.
And of course, with the new policy of no deletions on kit orders, I think we're only going to see more unused, standard kit items pop up on the classifieds.

While yes, kit and model-specific part lead times are growing longer on the 3/4/6, one thing that I'll always cherish about these models is having enough info in the plans to build pretty much every part of that airframe (on the second or third try at least :rolleyes: ) (clarification, this was in reference to model-specific sheet metal airframe components, not so much fiberglass/plexi, or other finish kit components, which are generally more universal across the RV lineup.)

I won't break forum rules and post a non-vaf link... But a skim of the most popular online auction site shows several O-320's at this moment in the range of 8 to 15k that look serviceable.

I realize that style of building is not for everyone. It's not a viable option to scrounge parts if you're after a specific configuration of dream plane. And obviously newer models don't have 3 to 4 decades worth of parts squirreled away in the corners of hangars, closets, basements, and estates across the world. I won't try to convince anyone they could/should spend less on their project, but I hate seeing people turned away or excluded by a financial barrier that is quoted higher than reality.
 
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I don’t think it’s impossible. However, 20 years ago Greg Hughes built a 6 for $35k. It was remarkable enough then it got written up in several publications.
That was 20 years ago.
 
I don’t think it’s impossible. However, 20 years ago Greg Hughes built a 6 for $35k. It was remarkable enough then it got written up in several publications.
That was 20 years ago.

Close - wasn't it Greg Halvorsen, the guy who was a building framer? Built it quickly, kept it light, painted it with a roller (IIRC). There was an article, as I shot the photos for it… Ken Scott wrote the article to be a counterpoint to Tyler Feldman's multi award winning cost-no-object RV-6, N4TY that had won every trophy going in 2000.