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The bottom is falling out - airplanes

AN23

Well Known Member
I, like most people, especially retirees like me, are watching our 401Ks go down faster than a Tripacer with an engine out. I also see members here speculating about the future worth of our beloved RVs. I clearly remember in 2006, helping a friend find a hard-to-find 180 horse, constant speed, STC modified Cessna 172. We searched the U.S. only to find a real beauty practically within earshot of his hangar. He paid top dollar for it, invested in a new interior and avionics and enjoyed it thoroughly for two years. Then, the bottom fell out in 2008. Airplanes, like houses, the stock market and practically every other "investment" tanked. I silently worried about how my buddy was feeling about his purchase. We would meet monthly, after work at one of our hangars and drink beer and generally discuss the world situation. The subject of his Cessna purchase came up and I braced for his answer. He said, "Yeah, I have regrets. I just wish I'd bought an even nicer one." I was obviously surprised and he saw it in my face. He continued, "all those numbers on my statements provide me no enjoyment through these times but that airplane and, the time we spend enjoying the flying and each other's company is priceless."

This too shall pass. Enjoy those RVs even if you have to scale back flying a bit. Just having a beer with a buddy while looking at, talking about and admiring these works of art will make you go home feeling better.

We've always heard that airplanes aren't investments......maybe they are.
 
Don't get off

In the words of Dave Ramsey, "The only ones that get hurt are those who get off the roller coaster in the middle of the ride."

There will be some that will sell, no doubt and I think the market for planes will flatten out dramatically in the next few months.

I'm really curious as to how it will affect Oshkosh this year.
 
Back to the OP's point .. it's the joy of owning and flying your own plane, even if a little less today, it's still your refuge.

No matter the cost, the smile I get on every takeoff is truly priceless. A longtime dream come true.

Be well
 
It’s how you look at something that determines it’s worth. The -8 I’m building is not an investment, I’m doing it because I love doing it. My home is not an investment to me, I live in it because I love living in it.
It’s people who see only the cost of something that really miss it’s worth.
 
I don’t care what my 7 is worth….I’m enjoying building it….can’t take the money with you….can create satisfaction, enjoyment and memories.
 
I don’t care what my 7 is worth….I’m enjoying building it….can’t take the money with you….can create satisfaction, enjoyment and memories.

Yep.

I was finishing my -8 when the markets were tanked circa 2008~2010. If I had taken that $100K and bought in, I'd have an extra $500K today, but lost a million worth of friends.

I'm really curious as to how it will affect Oshkosh this year.

Ha! See you at the party!
 
Yep.

I was finishing my -8 when the markets were tanked circa 2008~2010. If I had taken that $100K and bought in, I'd have an extra $500K today, but lost a million worth of friends.



Ha! See you at the party!

Same here, same timescale, and I smile each time I am with the -7. I have met so many good people since then that make the investment in time and money literally priceless.
Figs
 
Yep.

I was finishing my -8 when the markets were tanked circa 2008~2010. If I had taken that $100K and bought in, I'd have an extra $500K today, but lost a million worth of friends.



Ha! See you at the party!

I’m with Dan on this. The enjoyment from building/flying my RV and the friends made along the way are priceless.
 
Yep.

I was finishing my -8 when the markets were tanked circa 2008~2010. If I had taken that $100K and bought in, I'd have an extra $500K today, but lost a million worth of friends.

You have a knack for calling it Dan! It's time like these where you need to count your blessings and not your portfolio.
 
Some people gain satisfaction from managing a portfolio, then there are people like us that acquire that satisfaction from creating, and enjoying something.
 
A Gift of Wings....if I may borrow from Richard....

I've been at this Aviation Thing for a long time. Since I was 15 but I think it started way before that. In earnest when I was out on my own at age 20. I knew I would have an airplane at some juncture in time but that seemed far in the future when I started earning my private ticket. My amazing instructor at the time told me 'If you want to learn how to fly, you have to buy an airplane' which garnered a few chuckles from me. Some day, for sure...but at age 20? We got to looking around and found two J-3 Cubs for sale, one with 10 year cotton fabric and 90 hours on an overhaul. I postponed college to buy that airplane never thinking of it as an 'investment': it was that airplane that was going to teach me how to FLY! And it did! Larry said I could trade it up to a Super Cub one day if I wanted. That same J-3 is still in my hangar (with a few upgrades) 50 years after I bought it. Investment? Yes: it was an investment in my flying future. Who could have guessed it would become an iconic airplane!

I had always wanted to build my own airplane. I visited Mojave in the early '80's and, of course, fell in love with the airplanes I was amazed with that were sitting in Burt Rutan's hangar. He was there and answered any questions I had. I soon after bought plans for the Long Eze. Life intervened, and I was not to the point of building until about 10 years later and, by then, a lot of new designs were coming out. There was an amazing "new" design by a designer in Oregon called the Van's RV-4. Now THAT was an airplane I could build: Tandem (which I was raised on) and tail wheel. And good old aluminum construction! The tail section arrived soon after, and construction started in my single car garage. After 6.5 years of building, my first flight was November of 1997 and even with a few major life happenings,:eek: has accumulated over 1100 hours. I never thought of it as an 'investment'. It is an amazing airplane to fly and we have had so many adventures together. I guess one could say it was an 'investment' in my aviation future as well. So: I have the best of both worlds: low and slow with the door open and can land anywhere; fast and amazing, aerobatic, that can land nearly anywhere and get there in a hurry. And looks amazing on the ramp!

And Aviation has introduced me to some amazing people as well. I'm not ashamed to say most of the people I associate with are pilots. :) And this will be my 34th year volunteering at OSH. I'll probably fly the Cub out as my pilot S.O. will be flying out with a friend in her straight-tail Cessna 150 along with a Super Cub.

Investment? Yes: aviation has made my life ever so much richer for reasons people who don't fly or own their own airplane might never understand. I pity them......
 
Gosh!... What a timely thread. I'm only human and Gods been very good to me but... I struggle, (and pray), daily with trying to remain positive. Just reading each of the posts has lifted my spirits this morning. Thanks to each one for their inspiring words. Like someone already mentioned and my father always said, "Today is not forever and this too shall pass."
 
I try every day to remember that my ancestors a couple generations back moved through dense forest in northern Minnesota with EVERYTHING they owned contained in a single wooden chest - and survived winters as they carved out a few fields in the snow and mud.

Today, I am blessed beyond measure to own lots of “stuff”….but I don’t own it just to have “stuff” - I own things so that I can have experiences and put them into my memories. Because in the end, that is all that you have. All the stuff goes away, and what is in your head is what you take away from this world. Making the sun go down and then back up again behind a mountain range. Sliding softly above a thin layer of clouds and watching your shadow dance on the tops. Looping around a lone cloud in the middle of nowhere - or turning the world upside-down on a whim to see the mountains from a different perspective - memories most will never have!

Second (or third…or fourth….) airplanes don’t cost as much to have because you can still only carve out so many hours a day to fly, and which tank the fuel comes out of doesn’t matter - enjoy the experience, even if you have to cut back the total time - economic cycles come and go, but we’re still here.

Build…Fly….Enjoy the ride!
 
Maybe the price of engines will go down? :D

As one who's still building and looking forward to flying, I sure wouldn't mind if our hobby became a little cheaper.

If someone buys an airplane as an investment vessel, well that was silly. The stock market is for that. There's the old expression "if you want to make a million dollars in aviation, start with a billion". That applies to widebody airliners and two seat trainers.
 
The only reason we have our Glasair Sportsman is because the 2008 market collapse made it impossible for the owner of the kit to liquidate it at anything other than fire sale prices. Opportunity comes in unpredictable forms. We are very thankful this opportunity came our way.
 
My wife recently died of cancer and as I am going through her stuff throwing out things we spend a lot of money on which are worthless now I think about those things. Then I remember her smile when we had saved enough to buy it. That’s priceless.

Flying is the same. Life is short. Enjoy it. There is no point in dying rich so focus on what you really want and do that.

Oliver
 
My wife recently died of cancer and as I am going through her stuff throwing out things we spend a lot of money on which are worthless now I think about those things. Then I remember her smile when we had saved enough to buy it. That’s priceless.

Oliver

I’m sorry Oliver. I know it comes for all of us but it’s always sad when it does…
 
Oliver, So very sorry for your loss. Your comment of no point in dying rich hit a home run for me. Thank you. Praying for you and your family.
 
1 month shy of 9 years from tail kit to first flight. I think the hardest part for me was the $$ after the fuse kit was underway, coupled with economic downturns etc it stalled my build.
Finally overcame those hurdles and wrapping up my final assembly I was kinda overwhelmed that I’ld never be able to afford to fly it. Now the building was complete I had hangar, insurance and now fuel costs.
I slightly recall the $5+ fuel at the time of my test phase was daunting. On the other hand the test flying and tinkering was way more memorable than the $$ burned through the tanks. As it turns out I can’t fly the RV enough, work and family tend to limit my flying more than anything. In the meantime the RV keeps me smiling and shrinking time and distance.
 
I see no benefit to becoming the richest corpse in the graveyard. Those who know the price of everything and the value of nothing are not in my tribe.
 
Aviation

Aviation has given me way, way, more than its cost to play.
The wonderful people I’ve had the pleasure to meet over the years have been the best.
Building airplanes has been a life time passion. As a kid I’d dream of flying off a grass pasture in a plane that I would build someday. Hundreds of builds,, starting with folded paper taught me weight and balance, faster, slower designs.
Who woulda thought,,, a kid with not much academic kills could have made a living out of his passion. It’s been a good run.
75 years old now and flying the time off my new (3rd) RV8.
Very Blessed
 
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If you're building for an investment, you're building for the wrong reasons IMO. If my RV was worth zero by the time I'm ready to hang up the headphones, I'm ok with that. It's been a priceless experience, learning, building and flying it along with all the contacts and friends I'm made by being part of this community.
 
If you're building for an investment, you're building for the wrong reasons IMO. If my RV was worth zero by the time I'm ready to hang up the headphones, I'm ok with that. It's been a priceless experience, learning, building and flying it along with all the contacts and friends I'm made by being part of this community.

I completely agree Ross.
 
All very true and to the point, yet with the current market and resale value, it is very enticing not to get tempted to sell and start another project/plane. Of course, looking at those lead times I quickly come back to reality and want to hold on t what I have even more.
 
In my house, there are “dollars” and then there are “airplane dollars”

Pretty sure we all know the difference.

THIS life is one pass high speed pass. . .

Roughly 30,000 days. Sadly less, for too many.

As my good friend said sitting in my hangar one day as he was entering in to his final battle with Multiple Myeloma. . .

Never put off joy!
 
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There's some seriously inspirational stuff on this thread- love it.

Did a look at GAMA production stats....for Q1 '22 Cessna made 20 Skyhawks and 9 Skylanes....Cirrus only delivered 8 SR-20's and 60 SR-22's....not a single Bonanza was produced.

https://gama.aero/wp-content/uploads/2022ShipmentReport0519.pdf

From what I've heard that's with 1-2 year waits on new planes....so if that's their output when demand is high I hate to think what's gonna happen if/when demand falls.

With the bulk of the GA fleet at 50+ years old, I think the scarcity of airworthy rides along with the high cost of replacement is gonna at some point put a floor under pretty much any plane....especially ones with the capabilities and performance of a Vans.

Like many of you have said, building a plane is an investment in the experience and friendships, not money....but thought these stats were pretty interesting.

Have a great Sunday.
 
If you're building for an investment, you're building for the wrong reasons IMO. If my RV was worth zero by the time I'm ready to hang up the headphones, I'm ok with that. It's been a priceless experience, learning, building and flying it along with all the contacts and friends I'm made by being part of this community.

I agree with this, I dont plan on selling something I spend 3-5 years building as long as it meets my mission. That being said, planes are too high for what they are worth atm so lowers prices on things would be welcome.
 
I don’t care what it is worth, I’m not selling. In fact it would be better from an annual personal property tax standpoint if they were worthless. I enjoy building and built as much for the process as the finished RV-8, although I can’t say the flying isn’t amazing.
 
Oh well...

If the dollar value of my 7 declines, I won’t mind a bit. My heirs will be taking the hit, not me, and I know that they don’t care...😜
 
Well, Here’s How We Saw It

First, I think I’ve met exactly one guy building experimentals as an investment. He built Glassairs for sale and did OK, especially with the boost from his marijuana sales. A friend built a high $ certified airplane as an investment and it paid off, kind of. At least after his death from cancer it paid off for his widow. But we ran a business together, doing restoration, maintenance and modifications on racing, aerobatic, antique, classic and other special interest aircraft. We studied what airplanes and other things are worth and arrived at this…. “An item is worth what you can get someone to pay you for it. If you think it’s worth more than that, that’s why you still have it.” And oh boy, mine and my wife’s 401k are plummeting like free falling ball bearings. And we’re pretty much OK. I hope. And neither of us regrets any of the bucks we put into our airplanes and hangar. Totally worth it!
 
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I was blessed

To have the opportunity thru hard work, good health and stubborn perseverance to live my early childhood dream of a career in aviation. After more than 55 years of varied aircraft starting with a 65 hp Luscombe to 4-engine Boeings and retiring from two flying careers I am thankful for my retirement allowing me the opportunity to actually build and fly my personal aircraft with no longer being just a name/crew number on some flight schedule board.

I choose to regulate my standard of living to afford our ever-increasing
costs to operate my RV-9A or my trusty old restored 1941 Taylorcraft (that is actually a year older than I am) and is a welcome form of aviation therapy to associate with fellow homebuilt/classic pilot friends.

Just like my guns - they will be with me until they pry them from my cold,dead hands...
 
I always find it fascinating how similar in background we all are. 55 years flying, built a RV8 the I currently fly the heck out of. First airplane was a 1946 Taylorcraft, bought in 1969 for $1100, restored in 1970 sold 1in 1973. bought same airplane back in 2008 and restored for a second time. Flown everything from the Tcraft to A330. Favorite airplane Beech 18. Freight Dog pilot.

At 71 I am just glad to be flying. Many friends are gone or lost their medical.

Price fluctuation in Airplanes, Stock markets and housing always stabilize. Panic created by TV gurus on CNBC and other platforms are just for entertainment.

Hard work helps , but dumb luck and chance has more to do with life than we all like to admit.
 
I always find it fascinating how similar in background we all are. 55 years flying, built a RV8 the I currently fly the heck out of. First airplane was a 1946 Taylorcraft, bought in 1969 for $1100, restored in 1970 sold 1in 1973. bought same airplane back in 2008 and restored for a second time. Flown everything from the Tcraft to A330. Favorite airplane Beech 18. Freight Dog pilot.

At 71 I am just glad to be flying. Many friends are gone or lost their medical.

Price fluctuation in Airplanes, Stock markets and housing always stabilize. Panic created by TV gurus on CNBC and other platforms are just for entertainment.

Hard work helps , but dumb luck and chance has more to do with life than we all like to admit.

Very well said Michael. It always amazes me how similar many of our stories are. I also was a twin Beech freight dog pilot prior to my airline career and it started my love affair with tailwheel airplanes. My current (6th) RV is an RV6 kit I bought used, and will be my last. This was done for my lovely wife who doesn’t like the back seat. I won’t be selling this one, so I don’t care what the “market” says it is worth. I’ve told each of my four grandchildren that the first one to get a pilot’s license will be given my airplane - when I determine they can safely fly it. I’ve regretted selling every RV airplane that I have sold - after the sale. I won’t be making that mistake again. I haven’t checked my portfolio balance since January, and don’t intend to.
 
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