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Weather decisions

jwilbur

Well Known Member
I need advice on how to make the go/no-go decision. I cancel a lot of cross country flights because some element of a forecast is less than ideal. I'm still VFR only (currently working on an IFR rating) and a low-timer. I like ceilings greater than 3000', no precipitation, and visibility with the ground (i.e., I fear getting stuck on top).

Three times very recently I cancelled flights because the forecast was less than perfect for me and all 3 times the actual conditions ended up far, far better than the forecast. Most recently I cancelled a flight and drove for 15 hours because one area of my route had a forecast of 2500' overcast with possible heavy precipitation. Actual conditions turned out to be perfect, sunny, flying weather.

Obviously we can't ignore a forecast but seeing how inaccurate they really are makes me even further apprehensive about flying cross-country because a good forecast can just as easily end up very bad (the pessimist in me, I guess).

If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?
 
I'm a 1400 hour VFR pilot. A lot of that is cross country time. I rarely cancel trips and have only been "stuck" a couple of times over the years.

Flexibility is the key. Identify when the weather window is in your favor and get in the air then. If you run into conditions you don't like, go around, over (if data supports that choice), or land. If you land, wait until the weather gets better and have another go at it. Always leave yourself a way out and don't look at a 180 degree turn as defeat. It is just another path forward.

The other piece of flexibility is that if you absolutely have to be at Grandmother's house by 5:00 on Friday, you either need a great weather forecast or enough time to work around a not so great forecast.

When the weather isn't in your favor, use all of the tools at your disposal. Multiple weather sources for forecast info. Talk to the FSS - they still have some good information that you might not string together otherwise. Use your eyes, use ADS-b or whatever tools you have to put together your best strategy. And again, don't be afraid to change the plan.

Finally, always remember that you don't *have* to get there. Sometimes you just won't or can't make it on time. That's OK. Everyone understands. They would rather you be smart and survive than take unnecessary risks. This isn't life and death stuff unless you make it that way.
 
You're doing fine

Sounds to me like you're doing fine for a VFR only pilot, as you get your instrument rating, you'll have a far greater understanding of the big picture when it comes to weather. Here's my experience getting the ticket - My instrument instructor happened to have travelled for years on business in a Piper Arrow, so he had a lot of real world IFR experience. He would call me up when the weather was horrible and say let's fly! It was weather I would never have launched into and I still wouldn't. Now, this guy wasn't reckless, and he wasn't training me to fly in those conditions, rather he trained what to expect when the weather got worse than expected. That was great training and I am very grateful for it. If you can find an instructor to give you plenty of actual IMC time, you'll benefit from it greatly and be able to make consistent go/no go decisions to get the best balance of utility and safety from your airplane.
 
For me, if it looks both legal and safe, and with potential places to divert to, I'll go. If the conditions turn out to be worse than I'm comfortable with, I'll either find an alternate or land and wait for it to improve.

Very often the forecast is conservative and the actual isn't so bad. sometimes the actual does force the diversion. Remember, you're not going to the destination - you're seeing how far you can get. While that often is the destination, sometimes it's not.

The only caution here is to be honest with yourself about what you're flying into. And always, and I certainly do mean always, give yourself a solid bombproof way out.

Finally my motto is: "Arrive Alive."

Dave
 
If you have decent onboard weather, like xm, you?re only limited by how long you might get stuck somewhere and/or how good your options are for a 180 or alternate. Just remember, it ain?t perfect either.
I use a combination of METARs, TAF, Local Radar, and internet weather sources. I have XM and Foreflight linked to my iPhone in flight.
I will plan and adjust my route based on the forecast to insure I have the best options for alternates should my path get shut down ahead, or behind (I really try to avoid this). Usually, this means planning something less than a direct if there is any weather concern.

I worry less about ceilings and rain and more about visibility, wind, and convective activity. Some of these are not mutually exclusive.

I am a weather chicken, but my experience has taught me how to manage weather. I don?t really have any minimums short of what is legal, and prudent, in my judgment, but I never lose my option for a 180 unless I know for certain my next alternate or destination is clear. Any doubt, I turn around right now.

The only person that has an answer for you is you. However, if you don?t put yourself out there, with thought, you won?t gain experience.

Remember, the vast majority of weather related accidents are continuing VFR flight into IMC. This is completely avoidable, but we are human animals and tend to not want to make that decision while we still can.
 
I would recommend "Weather Flying" by Bob Buck, either the original or the revised version. Written by a master pilot and weather research pilot with GA and airline experience.
 
Very Flexible Routing = VFR

Flexible on timing, path, number of stops, alternative stops,....and delayed execution.

And what the others said about checking and cross checking,...and continuing to confirm you have options in your bag.

P.s. if you haven’t already looked at what Rosie said about how to work cross country flying,.... then do a search and enjoy the read
 
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"It is far, far better to be on the ground, wishing you were up in the sky, than to be up in the sky, wishing you were on the ground."
I don't know the author but it's very true. Never second guess a no-go decision, because, if you never cancel when the wx turns out to be okay, sooner or later you'll go when the wx is not okay.
As others have said, work yourself into wx experience gradually. If you have a solid-gold plan B, you can go and "have a look". Just don't box yourself in, and avoid the temptation that you have to get there.
 
web camera

One bit of information that some may forget is highway web cameras, ski area cameras, and even airport cameras. They work for driving, can work for flying too.
 
Forecasts are imperfect, and the only way to know that is to go take a look. If it is legal and above your minimums where you are, then go take a look.

I believe that the key to safe VFR in these wonderful machines is to only have one goal - get back on the ground safely. If I make it out of the pattern on departure that's okay, but I've literally turned around after only 10 minutes into a 1 hour flight.

I've diverted to an alternate location that was 30 minutes away after getting within 10 minutes of my destination - family was waiting at the airport and they had no idea why I was late. However, I was able to call them myself once on the ground safely. We showed up bright and early the next morning and had great stories to tell about our unplanned overnight in Tennessee.

I actually missed my first day of work at a new job that I had just landed. I called my boss at 9pm from a motel on Sunday night. I really expected to be fired (I wasn't).

I can't actually tell you how many times I've taken a flight where conditions didn't match the forecast, not to mention that I've seen "real time" ADSB weather that had NO correlation to the conditions I was flying in.

My point is that you have to fly according to what you see and know at the time, continuously evaluate to determine if you can continue the flight as planned, and then take action as necessary to get back on the ground safely.

Forecasts will be wrong, and you will always run into conditions that are unexpected. If it's better than forecast, you might be driving to your destination under CAVU skies. If it's worse than forecast, you have to change your plans and divert, delay, or get back on the ground asap.

If you wait for a perfect forecast, you will almost never leave home. If you only make one go/nogo decision on a flight, then it will be wrong. Weather and flying machines are dynamic systems that will surprise you often. You have to make continuous go/nogo decisions based on the conditions at hand.

Don
 
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2 comments:

Fly in weather that you are comfortable with. Don't look back at what couldn't have been.
With that said, look again at what Kyle said. At some point, you have to learn what kind of whether you aren't comfortable flying in. Most of us that fly VFR are flexible and go with the flow. If you MUST be somewhere and you aren't an IFR pilot then you will have outside pressure that could push you to make the wrong decisions.

BTW, not flying VFR on top is a great practice. I have about 1400 hours and I do not fly over a solid layer. I'm close to getting my IFR and when I do, that's when I'll fly on top of a solid layer.

Continue to make great decisions.
 
2 comments:
If you MUST be somewhere and you aren't an IFR pilot then you will have outside pressure that could push you to make the wrong decisions.
.

Don't be fooled. Even having the instrument rating, there are times when wisdom is the better part of valor. I still recall launching for a ski trip. Forecast called for "clear". We launched into easy IFR, temps above freezing. But as we neared our re-fueling point, ATC radio was full of aircraft ahead (higher, over the mountains) reporting moderate icing. After landing I walked into the FSS, soaking wet from the pouring rain. "What's going on?" I asked. Briefer read me the same forecast I had, "Clear". Rather upset, I asked if it looked clear to him. He said he didn't know, he didn't have a window! Turns out the front had stalled. Ended up in a pink motel room for the night.
 
VFR on top?

It has been a long time since I got my PPL and I've probably forgotten a lot of the rules. But to my memory, I think you have to have contact with the ground when flying VFR. There is supposed to be big enough holes to keep the proper clearance from clouds. You are not supposed to fly over a solid layer unless you have an IFR rating? That said. Get your IFR ticket. Get confidence in IMC conditions and your ability to operate without visual references outside the airplane. There is risk in life. We are taking calculated risks when we get in our little single engine airplanes and fly. Even more so in IMC and at night. Does not always give us that warm and fuzzy feeling. We are hyper aware of every possible place to land, and what that approach might look like, in the event of an engine failure. It's not boring and it keeps you mind working. It feels good to go through the process and procedure to pop out of the clouds and find the runway righty where it is supposed to be and complete the mission you set out to accomplish.

All that said, when in serious doubt, lay out. No shame in that....
 
Foreflight flight rules display

VFR cross country weather is tough since forecasts are generally not precise enough to determine the many ?shades of grey? in the middle of the continuum of weather. Radar composite returns don?t tell you what the ceilings and visibility will be in and around all those green and yellow returns.
I have found The Foreflight flight rules depiction along the route I plan on flying to be very helpful. When a weather system is moving across the country a band of IFR dots move across the country in Foreflight. It is easy to see the VFR areas as well. Zooming in for details and touching each airport brings up weather details along the route. I will usually follow the ?flight rules? depiction for 24 hours ahead of my planned flight to see how the system(s) are moving.
I have been able to complete the vast majority of VFR flights when a clear corridor of VFR weather was depicted.
 
It has been a long time since I got my PPL and I've probably forgotten a lot of the rules. But to my memory, I think you have to have contact with the ground when flying VFR.


Several (many?) other countries have that limitation, but that is not a limitation in the US.
 
I'm a 1400 hour VFR pilot. A lot of that is cross country time. I rarely cancel trips and have only been "stuck" a couple of times over the years.

Flexibility is the key. Identify when the weather window is in your favor and get in the air then. If you run into conditions you don't like, go around, over (if data supports that choice), or land. If you land, wait until the weather gets better and have another go at it. Always leave yourself a way out and don't look at a 180 degree turn as defeat. It is just another path forward.

The other piece of flexibility is that if you absolutely have to be at Grandmother's house by 5:00 on Friday, you either need a great weather forecast or enough time to work around a not so great forecast.

When the weather isn't in your favor, use all of the tools at your disposal. Multiple weather sources for forecast info. Talk to the FSS - they still have some good information that you might not string together otherwise. Use your eyes, use ADS-b or whatever tools you have to put together your best strategy. And again, don't be afraid to change the plan.

Finally, always remember that you don't *have* to get there. Sometimes you just won't or can't make it on time. That's OK. Everyone understands. They would rather you be smart and survive than take unnecessary risks. This isn't life and death stuff unless you make it that way.


Ditto for me but I have XM and ADS-B weather and can pick my way around weather, not through it.
 
Location issues

I fly in Louisiana and have an IFR rating but much prefer VFR. We get our share of low ceilings but the terrain is flat, there isn't much icing and there are lots of little airports to land at in a pinch. I'm a lot less confident about taking off in marginal conditions in a state like VA, where you are based. Your mountains to the west, that giant TFR to the north, the Atlantic to the east, icing, snow and thunderstorms can hem you in when the weather is worse than predicted.

I just finished "The Man Who Flew The Memphis Belle". Robert Morgan survived 51 missions over Europe and Japan, but said his closest call was flying out of Asheville in an Apache when he got into icing conditions.

John
 
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BTW, not flying VFR on top is a great practice. I have about 1400 hours and I do not fly over a solid layer. I'm close to getting my IFR and when I do, that's when I'll fly on top of a solid layer.

I don't mind flying VFR on top, provided I know that where the undercast ends. Usually, you can look at the satellite pics (I use Weathermeister) and the METARs and TAFs for airports on the other side to confirm that they are and will be VFR. That said, I am IFR rated (albeit not current), and the plane is fully IFR capable with all the goodies, so in an emergency, I could get myself down.

It's not the most comfortable thing to do the first few times you go on top, and it does increase your risk posture somewhat. Really depends on what type of undercast you're looking at, I think. An hour or so over a flat, non-convective, lower-level cloud layer is one thing...dodging cumulo-nimbus-bustus-assus is another entirely :)
 
If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?
I'm a snowflake, too. I worked too long and hard building my day-VFR aircraft to wreck it. I've been flying it for 4 years now, and have gradually expanded my comfort zone. My plane has two attitude indicators, a moving map display, and synthetic vision which could be used in an emergency. I use Foreflight on my iPad - both in the air and on the ground - and have found the MOS "Ceiling Forecasts" to be very accurate for preflight planning. In the air I get all the FIS-B stuff which is very helpful on a cross country. You can see at a glance where areas of VFR are. The new Foreflight version even shows "cloud tops" (which only works when airborne) but I haven't had the opportunity to use that feature yet. The "cloud bases" display on windy.com is helpful for preflight planning, too. Your Instrument rating will really boost your confidence.
 
I got my IFR rating after 30 years of VFR cross country flying. It has made me a much more cautious flyer. Perhaps if I had started IFR years ago I might be more adventurous but life gets more precious as you age.
We now have excellent weather tools available but sometimes you just have to take a look. Often the conditions are better then forecast.
The longest time I have been stuck was three nights in Findlay Ohio. A very long three nights! The lesson there was that although smaller airports are often less expensive then big city airports; services and things to do, make larger centres more attractive in bad weather.
 
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You are not supposed to fly over a solid layer unless you have an IFR rating ....

You are so right bud, and officially I believe it's called VFR on top and you must be in contact with ATC... but I can't tell you how many times I've seen other VFR Pilots do this... Not me, I have 4 reasons at home that I keep me from making that stupid decision.
 
You are so right bud, and officially I believe it's called VFR on top and you must be in contact with ATC... but I can't tell you how many times I've seen other VFR Pilots do this... Not me, I have 4 reasons at home that I keep me from making that stupid decision.

There is no prohibition in the US against a VFR pilot flying over a solid overcast, and (other than routine airspace considerations) there are no communication requirements. VFR requirements are about cloud clearances and visibility requirements.
 
There is no prohibition in the US against a VFR pilot flying over a solid overcast, and (other than routine airspace considerations) there are no communication requirements. VFR requirements are about cloud clearances and visibility requirements.

+1

"VFR on top" is an approved method of flying on an IFR clearance, with relaxed altitude requirements for the pilot, and therefore requires communication with ATC, in addition to their approval. This has nothing to do with a VFR pilot flying over a cloud deck, which is perfectly legal without a clearance or talking with anyone.

It would also be courtious if you didn't define this as a "stupid decision." You are welcome to your opinion, but shouldn't pass that type of judgement on others in the forums.

Larry
 
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Windy.com

Checkout windy.com - the best website I've found for both wind and cloud cover depiction. Not iron-clad, but gives an excellent idea of where the clouds are - and their bases. Also allows future projections.

I use it, Weathermeister, VAF Weather and the local weather channel data to paint both an enroute and destination picture. If there are enroute doubts about an undercast, I'll descend VFR to underneath early with an accurate idea of the terrain along my planned route. Underneath in a valley may not be feasible along a ridgeline. Also, an early descent may affect fuel planning.

If you totally screw it up and find yourself in the goo, don't panic - if you have an autopilot hit heading hold, climb above the terrain, then hit altitude hold and sort out your options without overwhelming concern about wings level flight or hitting something. Chances are there won't be two VFR aircraft in the same area with the same in-the-goo issues. and ATC will probably keep IFR traffic away from you.

Not legal and you may have to answer to the FAA man, but a lot better than planting yourself uncontrolled into the ground.

Always have a Plan B or even a Plan C.
 
You are so right bud, and officially I believe it's called VFR on top and you must be in contact with ATC... but I can't tell you how many times I've seen other VFR Pilots do this... Not me, I have 4 reasons at home that I keep me from making that stupid decision.

Can't quote chapter and verse but "VFR on top" and "VFR over the top" are distinct phrases and apply to IFR and VFR conditions specifically. IIRC, "on top" is IFR and ATC contact, while "over the top" is VFR and signifies above the undercast layer. Someone with a better book-memory can clarify the references.

Although Synthetic Vision is a great confidence inspiring tool, the vendors represent it as 'informational only' and not to be used as a primary flight instrument. My concern is whether it will be functional when needed, such as losing 'instruments' (panel goes dark) as the root cause of the emergency when SV is needed to descend.
 
Appreciation

Thanks everyone for the many very helpful replies.

I just took the IFR knowledge test a couple weeks ago. I can say with certainty that VFR "over the top" refers to flying under VFR rules: contact with ATC is not required and visual contact with the ground is also not required. VFR "on top" means you're on an IFR clearance in VMC and ask for "VFR on top". You are technically then flying under both IFR and VFR rules.
 
Although Synthetic Vision is a great confidence inspiring tool, the vendors represent it as 'informational only' and not to be used as a primary flight instrument. My concern is whether it will be functional when needed, such as losing 'instruments' (panel goes dark) as the root cause of the emergency when SV is needed to descend.
My synthetic vision is battery powered and not connected to the avionics buss. That provides a lot of redundancy right there. You're correct that SV is "infomational only", but if you're flying over the top of a layer with mountains with a 1,500' ceiling below, wouldn't it be nice to be able to descend down through the clouds and not hit a mountain? In an emergency, you understand. Another situation where I've used SV is to find an unfamiliar runway.
 
If you think about it....

Three times very recently I cancelled flights because the forecast was less than perfect for me and all 3 times the actual conditions ended up far, far better than the forecast.

Maybe you're being overly conservative, BUT: you may also be making excellent weather decisions! We just need more data to figure that out.

Even if your go/no-go decisions are right the vast majority of the time, it wouldn't be unusual to have three frustrating "misses" happen, even close to each other. So, how often have you been right?

We know one thing: you aren't telling us about three recent flights where the decision was "go" and then you had to turn back after a hair-raising encounter with Mother Nature. THAT would be MUCH more worrying.

I see you're in Culpeper. Would love to see your -10 if you get down this way (I'm at W96). I'm also available, free of charge, to act as a safety pilot if you want to practice approaches. :)

You're going to love having the rating.
 
If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?

DO NOT beat yourself up for making no-go decisions. I fly more IFR than many GA pilots but of course not as much as some. DO please remember the adage Bob posted about wishing to be on the ground. Live by it. My commuting experience over the last 4 years has allowed me to see the results of repeated go/no-go(meaning drive instead) decisions that have the 'must get there' pressure. It has been great for learning. Most of the time, the no-go decision was proven quite correct or the the conditions at the destination were flyable but not pretty which means they could have deteriorated in a blink, so again..correct. On a FEW occations, the forcaster just missed it with the result of wonderful weather at the destination. Sure, a few pangs about 'wish I had flown' but I will gladly accept those driving instances in order to miss the really bad stuff. On some occations the weather is worse than forecast. Fortunately, I have had to divert only twice after shooting a missed due to unforcast sudden morning fog (after mostly VMC enroute)

R N Bucks book posted earlier is a good read but I will admit that I read it twice. Once as a VFR pilot. I got NUTTIN from it. I could barely finish it. HOWEVER... after the IFR ticket, the book had real meaning. Its an excellent guide about how to gradually stick your toes into the water.

I cannot over emphasize how much an IFR ticket has improved the utility of my magic sleigh. The decisions that you struggle with today will become easier because the benign marginal VFR conditions that worry you today will become a non-issue. There WILL still be tough decisions where the weather will be at a crossover point. That does not go away, the change is instead the reduction in weather quality you are comfortable flying in plus the more detailed study that is sometime required for the decision.

Keep up the work on the IFR ticket and good luck.
 
Go?...or No Go?

JPytt5.jpg
 
fellow snowflake

In May, I drove 3 states away when at the last minute I wasn't happy with the weather, which turned out to be now big deal. And Im IFR rated.

Never 2nd guess yourself. Unless your a professional pilot this is our hobby. Don't risk your life doing something that's supposed to be fun. Flyings more fun than driving but driving works fine.

Ill happily watch the clouds part as I drive to my destination.

My VFR into IMC experience changed me for life, stay safe.
 
Flying in various weather conditions is a great training opportunity.

All the improved tools and fancy panel capabilities are helpful. However, I found I made the most progress on my flying by getting additional experience - with a CFI and with trusted seasoned pilots.

I learned from their experience in interpreting weather forecasts, evaluating in-flight conditions, and making judgements before and during flights.

Ask a CFI for some weather related flight training and invite an experienced trusted pilot to go one some of your trips.
 
Thanks everyone for the many very helpful replies.

I just took the IFR knowledge test a couple weeks ago. I can say with certainty that VFR "over the top" refers to flying under VFR rules: contact with ATC is not required and visual contact with the ground is also not required. VFR "on top" means you're on an IFR clearance in VMC and ask for "VFR on top". You are technically then flying under both IFR and VFR rules.

This is what I was referring to, however, I thought if you were on an IFR plan and then chose to go "VFR over the top" you also stayed in contact with ATC but were essentially on your own as you would be flying VFR. Similar to VFR flight following... Anyway, I'm not the expert but I think we're saying the same thing or at least very close. The point is that many VFR pilots actually do go over a solid layer having absolutely no clue what's below them. Some that I've personally flown with have gotten on top just because a weather report says "broken" at their destination and they figure they can get down on the other side. I've been in a plane with one person in an RV (not mine) that did that and will never allow that to happen again. My own rule is if I'm VFR over a solid layer I better be on an IFR flight plan with ATC watching over me.
 
Weather forecast...

The following thoughts about aviation weather forecasts are from an article by Richard Collins. It was written in 2015. Search ?Airfactsjournal.com?
For the full 14 page article about weather and weather forecasts.
The title of the article is:
5 Key Flying Lessons
? Some Things That Had To Be Learned The Hard Way


A forecast of good weather is more likely to be correct than a forecast of bad weather for a period 12 hours in the future.

Three or four hours in advance, a forecast of below VFR conditions is likely accurate about 80-percent of the time.

Forecasts of specific ceiling/visibility values are not likely accurate beyond the first two or three hours of the forecast period.

Forecasts of poor flying conditions are more likely accurate when there is an active weather system in play though the weather associated with a fast moving cold front of squall line is difficult to forecast accurately.

Surface visibility is more difficult to forecast than ceiling height and snow makes visibility forecasting ?rather wild guesswork.?

Forecasts of the time rain or snow will begin within plus or minus five hours are accurate 75-percent of the time.

Things that are most difficult to forecast include heavy icing, severe or extreme turbulence, and ceilings of 100 feet or zero before they exist.

Those are some of the high spots. And I think that this reinforces my thought that the best weather flying lesson that I learned over many years is the one about what you see and feel being what you get. Do have a Plan B (and C and D) if what you see and feel doesn?t satisfy.

Remember that, and y?all be careful out there while you learn your lessons.
 
I discovered an application called WeatherSpork just before OSH this year. In my opinion, it?s one of the best weather apps available today. There are two features that make it stand out.

1. It does a pretty good job at depicting the cloud layers along your route. This allowed me to avoid flying in IMC to OSH while flying IFR most of the route. This same view also depicts the freezing level.

2. The grid view shows a simple chart indicating the various conditions on you flight route with green being VFR. There is a movable departure time on the grid, that also moves your eta at each waypoint. The view is a three day window. This allows you to determine if leaving at another time may be more advantageous.

While it is a subscription based app, it paid for itself tenfold in helping me plan a safe route to OSH this year. Since then I use it all the time and found that is been pretty reliable and accurate.

While it works on both my iPhone and iPad, the iPad version has more features/functions. I don?t recall if there is an android version.
 
Stick your nose in it

Plagiarizing from Kyle Boatright, I'm a 2000 hour VFR pilot. A lot of that is cross country time. I don't have an IFR ticket. I've only been stuck a few times over the years. That said, I've had to cancel many trips due to weather (especially this year).

But I don't like to cancel on the forecast. I rarely cancel until the day of the flight when it's obvious from weathermeister.com that VFR is out of the question. My advice to a low-time pilot is don't cancel because the conditions are less than perfect or because of a forecast. Give it a try. Stick your nose in it. That's how you learn, through accumulated experience. You will get better at knowing when you should fly, and when you should not. As others have said, if you have to, you can always make a 180, to wait it out or cancel altogether.

The forecast is not always right (understatement of the year!) And most of the your weather information are METARS and TAF of specific airports along your route. They do not cover what is in between. So there is a lot you won't know, even with a good weather brief.

Many of my successful cross-country adventures would not have happened if I had insisted on perfect conditions before starting. On a long cross-country -- and the RVs are great for long cross-countries -- there will be weather, usually not forecasted, at some point along the route. Again, as others have said, you must be flexible, willing to adjust your plan as required. On-board weather -- I use XM Satellite -- is huge on the cross-countries; worth every cent.
 
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I have always heard "There are old pilots and there are bold pilots, but there are no old, bold pilots". I would agree with that one... In my younger days when I was building time chasing the airline job, I had a job flying single engine Cherokee Sixes all over the Carolinas flying freight. I flew in all sorts of weather on a daily basis to get the job done. That meant being exposed to LIFR ( 200' and 1/2 mile ) approaches without an autopilot, icing conditions, thunderstorms, all without onboard radar. Ugh!! I can't even imagine doing that now!

Nowadays, with all the technology that we have, one can be pretty safe on a cross-country flight. Between XM radar updating, Foreflight, etc.., there is a lot of information at our disposal. As you work on and finish your instrument rating, you'll learn how to manage your resources around you.

The one thing I won't ever do again is fly single engine airplanes into LIFR conditions. The only reason being is that it IS only a single engine and if it quits, not being able to see the ground makes a successful landing a whole lot more difficult. I suppose the same could be said for flying single engine airplanes at night, although I do enjoy night flying sometimes. If I am going to fly VFR on top or even on a regular IMC flight in a single engine airplane, I want to make sure that surface conditions are managable in an engine out drift down and glide to the ground. The term "managable" is an intentionally vague term, because it can all depend also on the terrain below. Am I over Florida or over the mountains? ...and where are those pesky tv towers!!??Those sorts of details can help me determine what I would consider acceptable risk.
 
...The one thing I won't ever do again is fly single engine airplanes into LIFR conditions. The only reason being is that it IS only a single engine and if it quits, not being able to see the ground makes a successful landing a whole lot more difficult. I suppose the same could be said for flying single engine airplanes at night, although I do enjoy night flying sometimes....

In the daylight, the majority of the time you will break out of clouds, but night goes all the way to the ground whether VFR or IFR.;) You pays your money and takes your chances.
 
I need advice on how to make the go/no-go decision. I cancel a lot of cross country flights because some element of a forecast is less than ideal. I'm still VFR only (currently working on an IFR rating) and a low-timer. I like ceilings greater than 3000', no precipitation, and visibility with the ground (i.e., I fear getting stuck on top).

Three times very recently I cancelled flights because the forecast was less than perfect for me and all 3 times the actual conditions ended up far, far better than the forecast. Most recently I cancelled a flight and drove for 15 hours because one area of my route had a forecast of 2500' overcast with possible heavy precipitation. Actual conditions turned out to be perfect, sunny, flying weather.

Obviously we can't ignore a forecast but seeing how inaccurate they really are makes me even further apprehensive about flying cross-country because a good forecast can just as easily end up very bad (the pessimist in me, I guess).

If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?
Seems like you are making the right decisions. Believe the weather reports and use all the tools you can. Note: Just because you are working on getting your Instrument Rating does NOT mean you will automatically be able to make that IFR flight. You will still need to use excellent decision making based on understanding all the tools for weather and looking outside, and, most important understanding your new personal minimums as a newby IFR pilot. Be safe and if it doesn't feel right don't go "just because you can".
 
Right on the money!

Sounds to me like you are thinking things through rather well.

IFR is great if you practise it lots, no practise and that ticket wont do much good in your pocket. So go for the ticket but keep practised.

As for your decisions with VFR, i have over 500 hours and many years of flying and i have left them behind me twice. If you are tiime constrained in your destination goal, go commercial or be prepared to take groudn transport. HAVE THAT AS AN OPTION!\\
 
Weatherspork

www.weatherspork.com is by far the best aviation weather info and training available. I regularly fly ifr and use this every trip. Go through all the training videos and learn to use a Skew-T chart. Everything will become a lot clearer.
Charlie
 
www.weatherspork.com is by far the best aviation weather info and training available. I regularly fly ifr and use this every trip. Go through all the training videos and learn to use a Skew-T chart. Everything will become a lot clearer.
Charlie

Are you affiliated with this company? At $79/yr subscription for weather, it seems a bit spendy (and no free trial period that I could find). Skew-T's are available free elsewhere. Can you tell us more about why you like this service?
 
NGM MOS

A free source of weather forecasting is at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/index.html . You can get a similar presentation across the time period by looking at https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/va/fredericksburg?cm_ven=localwx_10day .

I've been using this for years (and the tabular format before that) and have been surprised at how accurate (very good, not perfect) the forecasting has been.

My suggestion is to pick a source and "benchmark" it for a comfort level with its accuracy. Generally, even in the winter in the Great Lakes, if you can be flexible in your departure times by six to nine hours, you'll probably see a slice of time that's workable. But, no matter what, never give up the ability to just say no-go today and don't second guess the decision.
 
I am not affliated with this company. If there is a weather source that comes anywhere near this one, please show it as I will start using that. My only association is being an ifr flyer, and being a user of weatherspork. I mainly travel for business and understanding weather is important. Its not worth the cost to some folks, as if they go or dont go really doesnt matter. Any here actually used weatherspork ?
Charlie
 
I have a better idea. I will try to contact the manager/owner and let him explain.
Stand by.

and

I need advice on how to make the go/no-go decision. I cancel a lot of cross country flights because some element of a forecast is less than ideal. I'm still VFR only (currently working on an IFR rating) and a low-timer. I like ceilings greater than 3000', no precipitation, and visibility with the ground (i.e., I fear getting stuck on top).

Three times very recently I cancelled flights because the forecast was less than perfect for me and all 3 times the actual conditions ended up far, far better than the forecast. Most recently I cancelled a flight and drove for 15 hours because one area of my route had a forecast of 2500' overcast with possible heavy precipitation. Actual conditions turned out to be perfect, sunny, flying weather.

Obviously we can't ignore a forecast but seeing how inaccurate they really are makes me even further apprehensive about flying cross-country because a good forecast can just as easily end up very bad (the pessimist in me, I guess).

If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?

Joe,

Would like to thank Charlie for pointing this out.

Yes, I'm the co-founder of the new WeatherSpork app Charlie mentioned. I'm not going to talk about the app since that would require me to be an advertiser on this site, but I can try to address some of your concerns.

First, forecasts are imperfect and wrong from the moment they are issued. However, you can distill a lot of truth out of those imperfect forecasts...you just have to learn how to do that. I've been teaching aviation weather to pilots for nearly 20 years and I can tell you that weather is likely the least understood of all of the disciplines you need to master as a pilot and affects your flying activity more than any other physical factor.

Here's a common complaint I hear, "the forecasts were horrible...I flew from Airport A to Airport B and the forecast didn't mention thunderstorms at all, but I spent the entire flight dodging them." I usually ask, what forecast they were using. Most of the time, they will tell me they were looking at the TAFs along the route. Well, there's the issue. When I take a look at the actual weather for those airports along that route, none of them reported a thunderstorm.

Effectively, the forecast was spot on. This is because a TAF is a forecast for an airport. It's not a zone or area forecast, but pilots tend to use them as such. The TAF is only valid 5 statute miles from the airport, so if you are using a TAF that's on the other side of a mountain ridge 20 miles from your route, you can have significantly different weather over that ridge.

This is not to say that forecasts are always spot on...they are not. That's why it's important to understand the big picture. That will provide you with the best clues as to the weather you should expect. Yes, TAFs are important and useful if you plan to go to that airport (as a destination or alternate). That's how they should be used...not as en route forecasts.

I always hear the phases, "a no-go decision is never a wrong decision" or "don't beat yourself up if the weather turned out to be better and you could have flown."

These are true, but don't offer the complete story. If you've made a wrong decision where you could have flown, it won't be long before you make a wrong decision where you shouldn't have flown. You can't have your cake and eat it too. So, it could have been due to a bad forecast or it could have been a misunderstanding of how to properly use the forecasts you relied upon (most likely the case). In my experience, I see a lot of situations where the pilot was never properly taught or taught incorrectly.

I can certainly add more to this conversation, but I invite you to watch this free video I created that highlights some important topics that are not taught to pilots in their primary training. You won't be disappointed.
 
and



Joe,

Would like to thank Charlie for pointing this out.

Yes, I'm the co-founder of the new WeatherSpork app Charlie mentioned. I'm not going to talk about the app since that would require me to be an advertiser on this site, but I can try to address some of your concerns.

First, forecasts are imperfect and wrong from the moment they are issued. However, you can distill a lot of truth out of those imperfect forecasts...you just have to learn how to do that. I've been teaching aviation weather to pilots for nearly 20 years and I can tell you that weather is likely the least understood of all of the disciplines you need to master as a pilot and affects your flying activity more than any other physical factor.

Here's a common complaint I hear, "the forecasts were horrible...I flew from Airport A to Airport B and the forecast didn't mention thunderstorms at all, but I spent the entire flight dodging them." I usually ask, what forecast they were using. Most of the time, they will tell me they were looking at the TAFs along the route. Well, there's the issue. When I take a look at the actual weather for those airports along that route, none of them reported a thunderstorm.

Effectively, the forecast was spot on. This is because a TAF is a forecast for an airport. It's not a zone or area forecast, but pilots tend to use them as such. The TAF is only valid 5 statute miles from the airport, so if you are using a TAF that's on the other side of a mountain ridge 20 miles from your route, you can have significantly different weather over that ridge.

This is not to say that forecasts are always spot on...they are not. That's why it's important to understand the big picture. That will provide you with the best clues as to the weather you should expect. Yes, TAFs are important and useful if you plan to go to that airport (as a destination or alternate). That's how they should be used...not as en route forecasts.

I always hear the phases, "a no-go decision is never a wrong decision" or "don't beat yourself up if the weather turned out to be better and you could have flown."

These are true, but don't offer the complete story. If you've made a wrong decision where you could have flown, it won't be long before you make a wrong decision where you shouldn't have flown. You can't have your cake and eat it too. So, it could have been due to a bad forecast or it could have been a misunderstanding of how to properly use the forecasts you relied upon (most likely the case). In my experience, I see a lot of situations where the pilot was never properly taught or taught incorrectly.

I can certainly add more to this conversation, but I invite you to watch this free video I created that highlights some important topics that are not taught to pilots in their primary training. You won't be disappointed.

I watched your video. It's very informative. Actually making me wonder if I really want to finish my IFR rating at all. I know I don't have the time or the smarts to become a competent amateur meteorologist in order to interpret weather products I thought were produced for people like me to be able to make decisions. Seems from the video that even a detailed briefing is inadequate when "rain in the vicinity" is a cause for serious concern. I think I've got some serious thinking to do. ...
 
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