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Lead times

If I ever had had any interest in building an airplane, dealing with the now-added complexities of lead times and shipping delays would be the nail in that coffin.
 
Which might be why it's a good time to get in. I just ordered my empennage kit with a four-month anticipated wait. I can't get into one of the Synergy classes until August, and I'll need that time to acquire tools and get my garage workshop ready, so I'm OK with that. I'm hoping by the time I get to the other pieces, that time will have come down. If not, it's just more time to save money towards it.

The alternative is the certified used aircraft market, where a clapped out 182 that predates man walking on the moon now goes for $150K+
 
Synergy Air Class and Lead Times

. . . the Synergy classes until August, . . . I'm hoping by the time I get to the other pieces, that time will have come down.

Just a heads up: If you're taking the 8 day (RV-10) Synergy Air empennage class you will mostly finish the empennage kit during the class, so with the current long lead times you may want to consider ordering your next kit now. However if you are only taking the 1 day Synergy Air intro class, than you will have a lot of work to do following the class.

For what it's worth, I highly recommend the Synergy Air Empennage class. I found it to be a very valuable in-depth learning environment that gave me a great start in building my RV-10. After those 8 days I had a very good understanding of what good building looks like and how to accomplish it, and had used a wide variety of different tools so that I had a good idea of which ones I wanted to buy. The intro class doesn't even come close.

Welcome to the world of EAB. Hope you find it as enjoyable and I have.
 
Just a heads up: If you're taking the 8 day (RV-10) Synergy Air empennage class you will mostly finish the empennage kit during the class, so with the current long lead times you may want to consider ordering your next kit now. However if you are only taking the 1 day Synergy Air intro class, than you will have a lot of work to do following the class.

For what it's worth, I highly recommend the Synergy Air Empennage class. I found it to be a very valuable in-depth learning environment that gave me a great start in building my RV-10. After those 8 days I had a very good understanding of what good building looks like and how to accomplish it, and had used a wide variety of different tools so that I had a good idea of which ones I wanted to buy. The intro class doesn't even come close.

Welcome to the world of EAB. Hope you find it as enjoyable and I have.

Thanks! I'm signed up for the 1-day class - all I can swing with my vacation days, family stuff, etc. I'm fortunate to have a large EAA chapter nearby with a lot of experience building the -10.
 
Finishing kit lead times

Earlier post had finishing kit at 12 months. Now much longer and some parts will not be able to ship even then. Encourage everyone to not make the same mistake I made and assume just because most of the parts not imported (And not subject to corrosion delays) should not take that long. I'm now waiting over 3 months beyond stated delivery for the legs and motor mount. (After finishing kit was delivered) Plan ahead !! Great kit by the way. Glad I have the 14 to fly but loosing it for 10 weeks soon for painting.
 
I don’t think the delays will last, stock market will take a beating next year and the economy will be in the toilet within 6 months of that, along the way plenty of orders will be cancelled
 
History

I don’t think the delays will last, stock market will take a beating next year and the economy will be in the toilet within 6 months of that, along the way plenty of orders will be cancelled

The history I remember says this doesnt usually happen; even in tough times airplane kits dont tend to have cancelations. Maybe a slow down in new orders might happen.
 
Has anyone ordered a fuselage kit lately? Curious what the lead time is on that. I am supposed to have a crate date this December for the wings.
 
Lead Times Getting Worse

Ordered my QB Wings Sept 2019. Estimate Crate Date is now Feb 16 2022 - Jul 20 2022

Ordered my Finish Kit and FWF Kits Jan 2020. Vans website says - Parts Being Produced. No Crate Date listed.

:(
 
Not just RV's

I ordered a Carbon Cub EX3 kit in July 2021, projected delivery isn't until August 2022. The way things are going I'd expect that date to slip. They told me the CC363i engine wouldn't be available until January 2023.

Glad I have the 10 and my Highlander to fly in the meantime.

Gary
 
Tail kits

I ordered a tail kit about 4 months ago, when the lead time was saying 4 months. Website is still saying "parts being produced." Has anyone that ordered before August been getting tail kits delivered? Starting to wonder what people are seeing as to actual deliveries from order times or if everything is at a standstill.

As others have said I'm sure they are doing the best they can, so I don't want to come off as complaining, but what is causing this backlog? Is it the aluminum itself? I know a friend in the garage door business told me their steel doors were getting back to normal lead times, but their aluminum stuff was months behind.
 
I ordered a tail kit about 4 months ago, when the lead time was saying 4 months. Website is still saying "parts being produced." Has anyone that ordered before August been getting tail kits delivered? Starting to wonder what people are seeing as to actual deliveries from order times or if everything is at a standstill.

As others have said I'm sure they are doing the best they can, so I don't want to come off as complaining, but what is causing this backlog? Is it the aluminum itself? I know a friend in the garage door business told me their steel doors were getting back to normal lead times, but their aluminum stuff was months behind.

I am also August and haven’t heard a peep. I hear someone from April or May had just gotten a kit recently. Apparently, once you get the crating notice it’s
About 6 weeks or so for that until it actually ships. 4 months which was my original quote puts me to later this month, I certainly am expecting this to go until February now at the earliest.
 
I ordered a tail kit about 4 months ago, when the lead time was saying 4 months. Website is still saying "parts being produced." Has anyone that ordered before August been getting tail kits delivered? Starting to wonder what people are seeing as to actual deliveries from order times or if everything is at a standstill.

As others have said I'm sure they are doing the best they can, so I don't want to come off as complaining, but what is causing this backlog? Is it the aluminum itself? I know a friend in the garage door business told me their steel doors were getting back to normal lead times, but their aluminum stuff was months behind.

I ordered my tail kit at the end of May, it went to crating at the beginning of October and shipped last week. I am so excited to get started.
 
I ordered my empennage kit very beginning of June 2021, when the delivery was supposed to be 4 months. I have not heard a peep to date. Website says parts in production...
 
Part orders are pretty bad too. I ordered an aileron skin, a piece of metal and a few rivets. Took more than a month. I think Van's is just so slammed they can't even keep up with in house produced items.
 
I ordered my empennage kit very beginning of June 2021, when the delivery was supposed to be 4 months. I have not heard a peep to date. Website says parts in production...

I really like that Vans created the status page but it says last updated November 9th. Makes it a bit useless if they are not going to keep it updated.
 
Ordered my QB Wings Sept 2019. Estimate Crate Date is now Feb 16 2022 - Jul 20 2022

Ordered my Finish Kit and FWF Kits Jan 2020. Vans website says - Parts Being Produced. No Crate Date listed.

:(

I find it hard to believe that you ordered something 9/19 and the crate date is 2.5 years later.
 
I see the emp kit is now listed as an 8 months lead time on their website. Appears things are still getting worse, not better.
 
I ordered a tail kit about 4 months ago, when the lead time was saying 4 months. Website is still saying "parts being produced." Has anyone that ordered before August been getting tail kits delivered? Starting to wonder what people are seeing as to actual deliveries from order times or if everything is at a standstill.

As others have said I'm sure they are doing the best they can, so I don't want to come off as complaining, but what is causing this backlog? Is it the aluminum itself? I know a friend in the garage door business told me their steel doors were getting back to normal lead times, but their aluminum stuff was months behind.

Ordered at OSH. "parts being produced"
 
This situation isn't good. If I had known ahead I wouldn't have considered this build. I have already completely tooled up at a considerable expense, and revamped my shop for the build. Crazy

Yours Truly,
Impatiently Waiting
 
Definitely not a good situation for Vans. As customers start to get more and more frustrated, their reputation is going to suffer. I’m well aware of the issues revolving around supply chain and labor shortages. These trying times require management to start thinking outside the box to ensure they keep afloat. Unfortunately, it seems that Vans has become too tired from treading water and now they are head under, gasping for air.

While it’s easy to say everyone is in this same situation together, that’s simply not the case. These are the companies where management is very forward looking and implements change before witnessing the problem first hand.

With that said, I’ll patiently wait and turn my efforts to other hobbies for the time being.
 
I sent few emails asking about delivery date for my empennage. Van's is not responding with shipping date. I placed my order this year just after Oshkosh. I paid in full for empennage and fuselage. I am planning to order wings early next year.
 
The history I remember says this doesnt usually happen; even in tough times airplane kits dont tend to have cancelations. Maybe a slow down in new orders might happen.

History didn't have an enormous bulge in demand, like we have seen in the last 18 months. I promise that bulge will rapidly deflate once people start losing jobs. Not saying the market will evaporate, just back to normal or a bit less.

Larry
 
This issue has been causing me to really reconsider things as well. I have a tail kit and Im considering selling it and going with another kit aircraft since the lead times are half the vans atm. I'm struggling with the decision so I have went into hold mod until I can decide something.
 
Placed my finishing kit order back in Feb 2021, expecting crate date in Feb 2022 but that may change :(

Where do you guys see that “parts being produced" message at Vans website? Is that an option to see the real time status of kit order?
 
All I’m sayin is they better not be “ producing parts” for the RV15 until they get caught up with the orders that people have placed and paid for. Better be all hands on deck getting existing orders filled.
 
Guys, I get that lead times are frustrating, but bagging on Vans isn't going help your situation. It's not like they are sitting there twirling their mustache and working on their maniacal laugh while intentionally screwing with you.

Also, I don't for a second believe that they are "treading water" or "gasping for air" at least, no more than anybody else.

As a benchmark, I offer the following; I've spent pretty much my entire adult life working in the aerospace industry, a good portion of it at Cessna, and I can assure you that Cessna knows a thing or two about building airplanes.

At this point, the lead time for a new C172 is over two years, and thats with Cessna/Beech having several hundred-thousand square feet of factory space and the personnel that populate it devoted to parts manufacturing before you even start talking about assembly.

I 100% agree that it's frustrating, but so is being told that a fridge from home depot has a 8 week lead time or the bedroom furniture from Ashley has a 16 week lead time (both of which I've experienced this year- seriously, 4 months to get a night stand).

If home depot can't even get you a fridge for 2 months, what makes you think that a long lead time on something as complicated and low volume as kit airplane parts is somehow the fault of the company that is no doubt cranking them out as fast as their unseen (by us) production and supply chain issues will allow?
 
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Machines that are used to produce parts for our kits are not being used on the RV15 during normal work shifts. Prototype parts that are being developed for the RV15 are being done by prototype engineers and a handful of workers in the middle of the night, like 2 am, after second shift is over. That doesn’t affect kit and parts production at all.
 
Machines that are used to produce parts for our kits are not being used on the RV15 during normal work shifts. Prototype parts that are being developed for the RV15 are being done by prototype engineers and a handful of workers in the middle of the night, like 2 am, after second shift is over. That doesn’t affect kit and parts production at all.

Scott
It’s great that you are keeping up with the times and coming up with new ideas. But couldn’t that time be used to produce more parts for your current orders? At least until the backlog is brought down to a more reasonable level. Sounds like getting raw materials isn’t most of the problem, it’s having parts produced faster in more quantities. Just my thoughts.

I worked commercial construction for 30 years. When we got backed up we added another shift to get back on schedule ����*♂️
 
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Nobody likes long lead times. But what's worse than a long lead time is an order that goes into a black hole for months at a time. I think it's fair to say that Van's customer communication is pretty far behind what many people are accustomed to these days. The new web store is a very big step in the right direction, and it looked for a little while like the kit order status page was another positive step, but it was never officially announced as far as I can tell, and it appears to be unsupported now again with no official word.

I'm a newcomer to Van's, and I was surprised by how the communication about my first kit was handled. Aside from the initial invoice, I had no way to see that my order was still active or follow its status. I was asked to make payment through a relatively obscure add-on to the parts store when it was time to crate my kit, and it was left to the shipping company to tell me the kit had left the factory. That's really very different than the modern online experience.

I know Van's is a relatively small company, but the difficulty in finding the status of a big order like a kit compared to the excess of status updates routinely found in e-commerce these days requires a great deal of faith on the part of the customer that Van's is doing their best. I'd think it would be in their interest to make more informaton about kit statuses and production schedules available to their customers to help with the growing frustration at the overall situation. It may not be their fault (I don't think it is given my experience with other companies and products), but that doesn't mean PR can't be improved.

I want to be very clear that I'm happy with the products I've received and the conversations I've had with Van's. I just feel that the kit purchasing experience is not what I expect, and I'm not entirely confident that if my lead time changes I'll know. For such a big ticket item, that causes a bit of anxiety.
 
Scott
It’s great that you are keeping up with the times and coming up with new ideas. But couldn’t that time be used to produce more parts for your current orders? At least until the backlog is brought down to a more reasonable level. Sounds like getting raw materials isn’t most of the problem, it’s having parts produced faster in more quantities. Just my thoughts.

I worked commercial construction for 30 years. When we got backed up we added another shift to get back on schedule ����*♂️

To be clear, this particular Scott is not a Van's Aircraft employee. He is making statements about his understanding/belief as an outsider. He's also pretty close to correct.

RV-15 prototype parts are not produced in a manner that delays existing model kit production. I won't go into much detail here about RV-15 parts, but suffice it to say that the people working on RV-15 prototype aircraft parts are not the same people producing existing model parts, and the machines being used are often different and not in conflict schedule-wise. Our absolute priority is the production of parts and kits for existing orders, both in-house and at our various external vendors.

We're working hard to increase production and to manage the third party vendors we work with, and I will be communicating more about this shortly. Thank you to everyone, and please know we share your frustration and appreciate your patience.

greg
 
I know Van's is a relatively small company, but the difficulty in finding the status of a big order like a kit compared to the excess of status updates routinely found in e-commerce these days requires a great deal of faith on the part of the customer that Van's is doing their best. I'd think it would be in their interest to make more informaton about kit statuses and production schedules available to their customers to help with the growing frustration at the overall situation. It may not be their fault (I don't think it is given my experience with other companies and products), but that doesn't mean PR can't be improved.

That is completely fair, and we are working to do something about it. I'll be posting more details shortly.

greg
 
As a benchmark, I offer the following; I've spent pretty much my entire adult life working in the aerospace industry, a good portion of it at Cessna, and I can assure you that Cessna knows a thing or two about building airplanes.

At this point, the lead time for a new C172 is over two years, and thats with Cessna/Beech having several hundred-thousand square feet of factory space and the personnel that populate it devoted to parts manufacturing before you even start talking about assembly.

My day job mechanics can't find tires. Good thing RVs only have one tire per gear leg, and we aren't dealing with 6 tires per plane.
 
Based on what I’ve witnessed with aerospace manufacturing, it’s a multitude of different problems, all of which require a paradigm shift that many businesses will be challenged with:

  • Shortage of raw materials such as aluminum, steel, even simple materials/chemicals used in manufacturing processes.
  • Employee absences due to COVID (whether real or simply taking a COVID-cation).
  • High turnover due to a very lucrative job market. This is the era of the great resignation. Employers who offer remote work or unique perks are very attractive.
  • The old paradigm of cracking the whip harder on the remaining employees is exasperating the problem.
  • Prioritize new R&D vs. Production? Production, hands down. I hate to say this because I’m impatiently waiting on any update on the RV-15. I think Vans will be hard-pressed to get anything presentable for Air Venture 2022.
  • All vendors who supply to the top-level aerospace company suffer from all the above. Lead times prove to be inaccurate and ship dates can slip weeks or months. Some vendors are unable to provide lead times at all. The top tier company often has zero idea when they can offer finished parts to the customer.
 
My day job mechanics can't find tires. Good thing RVs only have one tire per gear leg, and we aren't dealing with 6 tires per plane.

I have seen the same thing. There are literally airplanes AOG due to the fact that they can't get tires. I have this mental picture of a container ship stacked floor to ceiling with Michelins and Dunlops doing laps around some port right now. Crazy times we live in.
 
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We just got a couch that we ordered the last week of February, a couch.....

I know Greg and company are doing everything in their power to keep up with demand, I think they said orders were up 250% compared to pre-COVID.

No company can keep up with that kind of demand under the current pandemic circumstances. They can't just grow 250% to meet that demand, doesn't work like that.

Ordered my wings recently, told September. Gives me plenty of time to finish the tail.

Completion times are going to get longer just due to the increased wait times for parts and kits, it is what it is.
 
Based on what I’ve witnessed with aerospace manufacturing, it’s a multitude of different problems, all of which require a paradigm shift that many businesses will be challenged with:

  • Shortage of raw materials such as aluminum, steel, even simple materials/chemicals used in manufacturing processes.
  • Employee absences due to COVID (whether real or simply taking a COVID-cation).
  • High turnover due to a very lucrative job market. This is the era of the great resignation. Employers who offer remote work or unique perks are very attractive.
  • The old paradigm of cracking the whip harder on the remaining employees is exasperating the problem.
  • Prioritize new R&D vs. Production? Production, hands down. I hate to say this because I’m impatiently waiting on any update on the RV-15. I think Vans will be hard-pressed to get anything presentable for Air Venture 2022.
  • All vendors who supply to the top-level aerospace company suffer from all the above. Lead times prove to be inaccurate and ship dates can slip weeks or months. Some vendors are unable to provide lead times at all. The top tier company often has zero idea when they can offer finished parts to the customer.


This is a very good analysis of what is going on across pretty much the entire world right now.

As the leading supplier of hoses to Experimental Aircraft builders worldwide, and other components for both Certified and Experimental aircraft, it is appropriate to chime in and let the VANS community know what Aircraft Specialty Flightlines has been doing to mitigate these issues for our customers as well as the growing base of OEMs that we work with.

Almost 4 years ago, Tom and I made the decision to invest heavily in our business to maintain and expand our rapidly growing customer base. Tom had experienced huge supply chain delays in his previous career. When we joined forces, we knew that the industry standard “First in, First out” process wasn't going to be our path. Thinking outside of the box, and bucking accepted practice, we were committed to take as much production in house as possible as well as to invest whatever was necessary in materials/inventory, and most importantly in people. This commitment involved the gradual building up a stock of over 2 years worth of raw materials. As our customer base has increased, we have also increased our raw materials to match and increase this time commitment. We never wanted to be in a position where we were unable to fill orders because we were waiting on parts to come in, or to be put into a position where we had to purchase raw materials at ridiculously high prices due to rapid price fluctuations. In addition, this large buffer allows us to take on new OEM contracts without impacting our ability to continue to take care of our existing customer base. We are fortunate in that VANS is an incredible company and at the tip of the spear for experimental aviation. What they are doing now allows us to "see" the future as far as demand. We know what is coming 2-3 years down the road and we are prepared for it.

The other portion of the equation for us was investing equally heavily in equipment and personnel. Like the rest of the world, we have been impacted by COVID, but our group of dedicated people in our production shop not only took care of themselves and their families, but our clients as well. We fully embrace the mantra that “There is no 'I' in team."

Over the past 4 years we set up a larger production shop as well as two prototype shops. They all work on different projects, yet are very closely linked together. There is equipment duplication between the shops, which allows a part to be prototyped by Tom in South Carolina, emailed to Steve in WI for 3d printing and test fitting/machining, and then emailed to our production shop 20 miles away for rapid manufacturing. We are all working long hours, but appreciate the opportunity to be part of this incredible aviation community. However, Tom and I need to give credit where credit is due. Without our group in the production shop, we couldn't be where we are today.

Over the past year, we have redoubled our commitment to even longer range planning. Our conversations focus on a 3-5 year time frame and everything we are doing is working toward providing even more complete kits, and ensuring that we take care of all the builders and OEMs that have helped us get to we are today.

Due to our inventory commitments, we are fortunate that we do not face any material shortages. The only shortage we currently face is the biggest one of all, which is time. To accommodate that we have increased our lead times on custom hose orders to 5-7 business days and on hose kits up to 3 weeks depending on the size of the order. Those of you who order from us probably realize that we normally beat these times by a wide margin. However, what this allows us to do is to sort orders in such a way that we can still turn a complete FWF package in 24-48 hours (and sometimes even the same day) for someone who is doing a conditional inspection and realizes that they have 20 year old rubber hoses that need to be replaced. Despite the longer published lead times, never hesitate to reach out to us if you need something done quickly. We have the shop time available daily to get ASAP orders done, but sincerely appreciate you allowing us to take slightly longer with some of the kits so we can accommodate the ASAP orders. Ultimately, we want to make sure to keep everyone flying, and everyone building without being delayed on account of us.

On the subject of time, we do not have a social media presence other than the occasional post on forums because it would distract us from what we are striving to achieve on a daily basis, which is providing the best value for the best products with the best customer service. We often hear from you that people are posting about us on Facebook and other forums, and we do sincerely appreciate the positive word of mouth. If any questions are asked that we do not respond to in those venues, we are always a phone call away. We have also partnered with some incredible Youtube channels across a diverse band of aviation projects and a diverse group of builders.

We are on the verge of several rather significant and meaningful announcements over the next several months that we know will impact you all in a very positive way. There are some things coming that many of you have asked for. One of the big things that we can currently discuss is that we are working on brand recognition. We are going to be doing away with "Aircraft Specialty" and "TS Flightlines" and operating under the "Aircraft Specialty Flightlines" name going forward.

As we do this, there is also a large website reconstruction project underway. We have so many different kits available right now, that we often hear feedback that it would be easier if the kits were more clearly defined. So, we are bundling together our most popular kits to make them into packages that are easier to understand, select and order.

There is a lot more coming down the line in the next few months, but for now, we wanted to say "Thank you." We sincerely appreciate all of you.

Steve and Tom
 
Some lead time data points...

More data points for those wondering....

My Van's Down payment was placed on an RV8 QB fuse, QB wings, and finish kit November 2020. The wings shipped early December '21, and Fuse/finish just recently (December '21) shipped. So my Van's lead time was roughly 12-13 months for my RV-8 QB kits. I understand that number is now larger. BTW, the QB fuselage was earlier than Van's previous verbal estimates, which had a large, large window.
While we're on lead times...My Titan IO-370 was ordered with a Feb'22 ship date, and the last update I got was spring or summer '22. So that makes the Titan leads around 12-16 months. Sent a deposit to Stein's in late April '21 for a panel design/build...they're not yet working yet on my project, and the last contact indicates that the queue is long. That's 8+ months and I think the estimate was 10 months. I ordered an Andair fuel valve in April '21 with a 6-8 week lead time and got the valve in June '21 (2-3 months). Gretz pitot mast....still waiting on a Spruce backorder a few month ago, so I ordered the "blue" one when my wings shipped. If you gotta have a Gretz mast, you should order it. If you have one and your wings are months and months from shipping....call me. Skydesigns gun drilled gear legs were ordered in Mar '21 and arrived quicker than expected, Jun '21.

YMMV, (edit - especially since noticing this is a -10 thread...)
 
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just me

More data points for those wondering....

My Van's Down payment was placed on an RV8 QB fuse, QB wings, and finish kit November 2020. The wings shipped early December '21, and Fuse/finish just recently (December '21) shipped. So my Van's lead time was roughly 12-13 months for my RV-8 QB kits. I understand that number is now larger. BTW, the QB fuselage was earlier than Van's previous verbal estimates, which had a large, large window.
While we're on lead times...My Titan IO-370 was ordered with a Feb'22 ship date, and the last update I got was spring or summer '22. So that makes the Titan leads around 12-16 months. Sent a deposit to Stein's in late April '21 for a panel design/build...they're not yet working yet on my project, and the last contact indicates that the queue is long. That's 8+ months and I think the estimate was 10 months. I ordered an Andair fuel valve in April '21 with a 6-8 week lead time and got the valve in June '21 (2-3 months). Gretz pitot mast....still waiting on a Spruce backorder a few month ago, so I ordered the "blue" one when my wings shipped. If you gotta have a Gretz mast, you should order it. If you have one and your wings are months and months from shipping....call me. Skydesigns gun drilled gear legs were ordered in Mar '21 and arrived quicker than expected, Jun '21.

YMMV
So I assume this is typical and not some special case that delayed the order.
What does this really mean?
Are people flying again?

Do you all think that private aviation is seeing a renaissance like in the 1970's?

if so this bodes well for the future of general aviation.
 
Another data point. Down payment for RV-7 tip-up finish kit April 2021 and was given crating date of 10/4/21. Paid the remainder in late August 2021. Just received the kit this week via Old Dominion. The online kit status page still shows the kit in crating.

Given some of the longer delays I've seen people talking about, I'm quite pleased to get it this quickly. I started my project in 2006, so I can wait a few extra months.
 
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